Scenarios
A scenario is a set of assumptions applied to the same underlying Xero data. Cash Runway ships with three — Base, Best, and Worst — and lets you tune them so the forecast reflects how your business actually behaves.
The three default scenarios
| Scenario | Default assumptions |
|---|---|
| Base | Invoices paid on due date. Bills paid on due date. No haircut on AR. |
| Best | Invoices paid ~7 days early. No late payers. All pipeline deals close. |
| Worst | Invoices paid with each customer's average lag. AR over 60 days old is treated as at-risk. |
The scenario tabs live above the 13-week timeline. Switching tabs recomputes the forecast in under a second for most orgs.
Editing assumptions
Open Scenarios → Edit (gear icon next to the scenario name). Each scenario exposes a handful of knobs:
- Payment lag — how many days to shift AR from due date (negative = pay early).
- AR haircut — a percentage discount applied to invoices past a threshold in days.
- Pipeline conversion rate — what fraction of HubSpot pipeline deals close in the forecast window.
- Bill timing — pay bills on due date, or stretch to a configured maximum lag.
Change a value, click Save, and the timeline recomputes in place. Nothing is written back to Xero — scenarios are a read-only overlay.
How recomputation works
Under the hood, each scenario produces a fresh ForecastSnapshot by running the pure computeForecast function over the current CashItem set with the scenario's assumptions layered on. Because the compute is deterministic and fast, you can edit assumptions interactively and watch the closing-cash line chart redraw.
Creating a new scenario
Click + New scenario on the switcher. You'll be asked for:
- A name (e.g. "Q3 hiring freeze").
- A starting point — usually "Clone from Base" is the fastest way in.
- The assumptions you want to override.
New scenarios don't affect the defaults — they sit alongside them.
What to layer on top
Scenarios adjust how the forecast interprets your existing Xero data. For cash events that aren't in Xero at all — a pending tax payment, a known grant — you want manual items. Manual items show up in every scenario, but their impact is modelled against that scenario's timing assumptions.
Related
- Manual items — add events Xero doesn't know about.
- CSV import — bring in many manual items at once.
- Your first forecast — the 13-week timeline, if you want a refresher.